Using circular statistics to analyse time patterns in crime incidence

A set of techniques referred to as circular statistics has been developed for the analysis of directional and orientational data. The unit of measure for such data is angular (usually in either degrees or radians), and the statistical distributions underlying the techniques are characterised by their cyclic nature-for example, angles of 359.9 degrees are considered close to angles of 0 degrees. In this paper, we assert that such approaches can be easily adapted to analyse time-of-day and time-of-week data, and in particular daily cycles in the numbers of incidents reported to the police. We begin the paper by describing circular statistics. We then discuss how these may be modified, and demonstrate the approach with some examples for reported incidents in the Cardiff area of Wales. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Canine intra-nasal squamous cell carcinoma treated with chemotherapy prior to surgical resection

A 12-year-old male castrated Samoyed dog was presented with left-sided epistaxis and sneezing. Diagnostic procedures included haematology and biochemistry testing, thoracic radiography, fine needle aspiration of regional lymph nodes, CT, rhinoscopy, incisional biopsy and histopathology. Squamous cell carcinoma of the rostral nasal cavity was diagnosed, with no evidence of metastatic disease. External beam radiation was not an accessible treatment option. Complete surgical resection of the tumour would have required a larger, more disfiguring resection of nasal planum and maxilla than the owner was prepared to accept and may have been associated with an unacceptable morbidity. As an alternative, the extent of disease was reduced using a combination of carboplatin, doxorubicin and piroxicam chemotherapy. This allowed a less extensive nasal planum removal to be performed to remove residual disease with clean margins. The patient achieved a 14 month disease free interval from the time of surgery to the time of local recurrence. Survival time from diagnosis to eventual euthanasia for progressive local disease was 18 months.

Motorcycle accident risk could be inflated by a time to arrival illusion

Purpose. Drivers adopt smaller safety margins when pulling out in front of motorcycles compared with cars. This could partly account for why the most common motorcycle/car accident involves a car violating a motorcyclist's right of way. One possible explanation is the size-arrival effect in which smaller objects are perceived to arrive later than larger objects. That is, drivers may estimate the time to arrival of motorcycles to be later than cars because motorcycles are smaller. Methods. We investigated arrival time judgments using a temporal occlusion paradigm. Drivers recruited from the student population (n = 28 and n = 33) saw video footage of oncoming vehicles and had to press a response button when they judged that vehicles would reach them. Results. In experiment 1, the time to arrival of motorcycles was estimated to be significantly later than larger vehicles (a car and a van) for different approach speeds and viewing times. In experiment 2, we investigated an alternative explanation to the size-arrival effect: that the smaller size of motorcycles places them below the threshold needed for observers to make an accurate time to arrival judgment using tau. We found that the motorcycle/car difference in arrival time estimates was maintained for very short occlusion durations when tau could be estimated for both motorcycles and cars. Conclusions. Results are consistent with the size-arrival effect and are inconsistent with the tau threshold explanation. Drivers estimate motorcycles will reach them later than cars across a range of conditions. This could have safety implications.

Phototoxicity of photosystem II (PSII) herbicides to coral

Recent reports of contamination of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park by herbicides used in antifouling paints and in agriculture have caused concern over the possible effects on corals in nearshore areas. Pulse-Amplitude Modulated (PAM) chlorophyll fluorescence techniques were used to examine changes in the maximum effective quantum yield (ΔF/Fm′) of symbiotic dinoflagellates within the host tissues (in hospite) of the coral Seriatopora hystrix exposed to a number of Photosystem II (PSII) inhibiting herbicides in short-term toxicity tests. The concentration of herbicide required to reduce ΔF/Fm′ by 50% (median effective concentration [EC50]) differed by over 2 orders of magnitude: Irgarol 1051 (0.7 μg l-1) > ametryn (1.7 μg l-1) > diuron (2.3 μg l-1) > hexazinone (8.8 μg l -1) > atrazine (45 μg l-1) > simazine (150 μg l-1) > tebuthiuron (175 μg l-1) > ionynil (> 1 mg l-1). Similar absolute and relative toxicities were observed with colonies of the coral Acropora formosa (Irgarol 1051 EC50: 1.3 μg l-1, diuron EC50: 2.8 μg l-1), Time-course experiments indicated that ΔF/Fm′ was rapidly reduced (i.e. within minutes) in S. hystrix exposed to Irgarol 1051 and diuron. On return to fresh running seawater, ΔF/Fm′ recovered quickly in diuron-exposed corals (i.e. in minutes to hours), but slowly in corals exposed to Irgarol 1051 (i.e. hours to days). Time-course experiments indicated that the effects of diuron (3 μg l-1) on S. hystrix were inversely related to temperature over the range 20 to 30 °C, although initially the effects were less at the lower temperatures. Repeated exposure to pulses of Irgarol 1051 (daily 2 h exposure to 30 μg l -1 over 4 d) resulted in a 30% decrease in the density of symbiotic dinoflagellates in the tissues of S. hystrix.

A Bayesian approach to imposing curvature on distance functions

The estimated parameters of output distance functions frequently violate the monotonicity, quasi-convexity and convexity constraints implied by economic theory, leading to estimated elasticities and shadow prices that are incorrectly signed, and ultimately to perverse conclusions concerning the effects of input and output changes on productivity growth and relative efficiency levels. We show how a Bayesian approach can be used to impose these constraints on the parameters of a translog output distance function. Implementing the approach involves the use of a Gibbs sampler with data augmentation. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is also used within the Gibbs to simulate observations from truncated pdfs. Our methods are developed for the case where panel data is available and technical inefficiency effects are assumed to be time-invariant. Two models-a fixed effects model and a random effects model-are developed and applied to panel data on 17 European railways. We observe significant changes in estimated elasticities and shadow price ratios when regularity restrictions are imposed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Caregiver burden, time spent caring and health status in the first 12 months following stroke

Objective: To quantify time caring, burden and health status in carers of stroke patients after discharge from rehabilitation; to identify the potentially modifiable sociodemographic and clinical characteristics associated with these outcomes. Methods: Patients and carers prospectively interviewed 6 (n = 71) and 12 (n = 57) months after discharge. Relationships of carer and patient variables with burden, health status and time analysed by Gaussian and Poisson regression. Results: Carers showed considerable burden at 6 and 12 months. Carers spent 4.6 and 3.6 hours per day assisting patients with daily activities at 6 and 12 months, respectively. Improved patient motor and cognitive function were associated with reductions of up to 20 minutes per day in time spent in daily activities. Better patient mental health and cognitive function were associated with better carer mental health. Conclusions: Potentially modifiable factors such as these may be able to be targeted by caregiver training, support and education programmes and outpatient therapy for patients.

Australia's National Mental Health Strategy and deinstitutionalization: some empirical results

Objective: To determine the role of the National Mental Health Strategy in the deinstitutionalization of patients in psychiatric hospitals in Queensland. Method: Regression analysis (using the maximum likelihood method) has been applied to relevant time-series datasets on public psychiatric institutions in Queensland. In particular, data on both patients and admissions per 10 000 population are analysed in detail from 1953-54 to the present, although data are presented from 1883-84. Results: These Queensland data indicate that deinstitutionalization was a continuing process from the 1950s to the present. However, it is clear that the experience varied from period to period. For example, the fastest change (in both patients and admissions) took place in the period 1953-54 to 1973-74, followed by the period 1974-75 to 1984-85. Conclusions: In large part, the two policies associated with deinstitutionalization, namely a discharge policy ('opening the back door') and an admission policy ('closing the front door') had been implemented before the advent of the National Mental Health Strategy in January 1993. Deinstitutionalization was most rapid in the 30-year period to the early 1980s: the process continued in the 1990s, but at a much slower rate. Deinstitutionalization was, in large part, over before the Strategy was developed and implemented.

Towards platform-independent real-time systems

Real-time software systems are rarely developed once and left to run. They are subject to changes of requirements as the applications they support expand, and they commonly outlive the platforms they were designed to run on. A successful real-time system is duplicated and adapted to a variety of applications - it becomes a product line. Current methods for real-time software development are commonly based on low-level programming languages and involve considerable duplication of effort when a similar system is to be developed or the hardware platform changes. To provide more dependable, flexible and maintainable real-time systems at a lower cost what is needed is a platform-independent approach to real-time systems development. The development process is composed of two phases: a platform-independent phase, that defines the desired system behaviour and develops a platform-independent design and implementation, and a platform-dependent phase that maps the implementation onto the target platform. The last phase should be highly automated. For critical systems, assessing dependability is crucial. The partitioning into platform dependent and independent phases has to support verification of system properties through both phases.

Understanding and Managing the Late Time of Ratooning Effect on Cane Yield

Each year growers are faced with the decision of when to harvest individual blocks of sugarcane throughout the harvest season. This decision influences the yield of the current crop and can affect the yield in the following season. Growers must therefore decide which blocks to harvest early and which to harvest later in the harvest season. Usually, the latest harvested cane is the lowest yielding the following year (the �late harvest� effect). Block productivity data from Tully were used to determine the effects of harvest timing on cane yield of the current and subsequent crop. The results are tabulated to provide a ready reference to these time of harvest effects on the current and future crop in either a single year or over the full crop cycle for the Tully district.